Far-right AfD projected to win big in Saxony-Anhalt state election

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to achieve a significant victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, according to exit polls released Sunday, marking its first major state win since World War II. The far-right party secured 44-44.5% of the vote, far outpacing the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 18.5%, and signaling a shift in Germany’s political landscape.

AfD's Historic Lead in Saxony-Anhalt Election

The AfD’s projected win, which exceeds pre-election polls, underscores its growing influence in eastern Germany. Ulrich Siegmund, the party’s 35-year-old lead candidate, hailed the result as a “historic outcome,” declaring, “We have made history in this state.” The party’s manifesto includes sweeping policies such as a “remigration and deportation offensive,” banning LGBTQ+ pride flags in schools, and halting new wind farm construction. These pledges, coupled with a nostalgic appeal to East Germany’s communist past, have resonated with voters in the 2.1 million-population state.

The AfD’s rise has been fueled by widespread discontent with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right government, which faces criticism for failing to revive Germany’s stagnant economy and curb the party’s support. Merz’s CDU, which has governed Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years, saw its vote share plummet to 18.5%, down from 23% in pre-election surveys. The party’s state premier, Sven Schulze, conceded the result, acknowledging the need to “deal with the outcome” of a “tough and intensive campaign.”

Uncertainty Over Governing Majority

While the AfD’s lead is clear, it remains uncertain whether the party has secured an absolute majority in the state parliament. Exit polls suggest the AfD fell slightly short of the threshold needed to govern alone, with smaller parties like the BSW potentially determining the outcome. The BSW, a left-wing populist group, is hovering near the 5% threshold required to enter the legislature, raising questions about its role as a potential kingmaker.

Under the current system, the AfD would need to form a coalition to govern, but mainstream parties have maintained a “firewall” of non-cooperation with the far-right. The CDU, SPD, and Greens have all ruled out alliances with the AfD, citing its classification as “right-wing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. Siegmund, however, has rejected this label, stating, “It was the others who erected the firewalls.”

The situation is further complicated by the potential exclusion of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), a CDU coalition partner, which failed to meet the 5% threshold. This could force the CDU to seek support from the Left Party, a scenario that mirrors a minority government model used in neighboring Thuringia. However, such a move would require navigating complex political negotiations, as the Left Party has also rejected cooperation with the AfD.

Implications for German Politics and the “Firewall” Policy

The Saxony-Anhalt result has intensified pressure on Merz’s government, which has struggled to address economic stagnation and rising far-right support. The CDU’s loss in the state, a key stronghold, could signal a broader shift in German politics, with the AfD emerging as the nation’s most popular party. The party’s national leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, have emphasized their commitment to “governing alone,” but this remains contingent on the final seat distribution.

The outcome also raises concerns about the stability of Germany’s post-war political order. The AfD’s policies—ranging from stricter immigration controls to a nostalgic rebranding of East Germany—have drawn both support and alarm. Critics warn that an AfD-led government could destabilize state security apparatuses, with some alleging ties to Russian interests. The Kremlin, however, has denied direct involvement, though Thuringia’s interior minister, Georg Maier, claimed the AfD is “the most important instrument for destabilising Germany” for President Vladimir Putin.

Public reaction to the election has been polarized. Thousands of AfD supporters celebrated in Magdeburg, with crowds singing the national anthem, while opponents staged a “festival of democracy” to protest the party’s rise. Church leaders, including Magdeburg’s bishop, have warned against the risks of populist forces “sowing discord and fear,” echoing historical parallels to the erosion of democratic norms.

Public Reaction and Political Fallout

Voter turnout reached 54% by 2pm, according to the state election commissioner, reflecting the high stakes of the election. The surge in participation, which far exceeded previous contests, highlights the deepening polarization in German society. The AfD’s campaign, which focused on anti-establishment rhetoric and nostalgia for East Germany’s past, resonated with voters disillusioned by economic stagnation and perceived cultural shifts.

The result has also sparked debates about the future of the “firewall” policy. While mainstream parties have consistently refused to cooperate with the AfD, the party’s growing influence may force a reevaluation. Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder noted that the AfD’s success “will test the resilience of Germany’s democratic institutions,” as the party seeks to expand its reach beyond eastern Germany.

As the final seat distribution is determined, the AfD’s ability to govern will hinge on whether it can secure a majority or forge alliances with smaller parties. The outcome of these negotiations will shape the future of Saxony-Anhalt and, by extension, the trajectory of German politics in the lead-up to the 2029 federal elections.

The next critical step will be the final seat distribution, which will determine whether the AfD can govern alone or must navigate complex coalition negotiations. As the party’s leaders prepare for the next phase, the results in Saxony-Anhalt will serve as a pivotal test of Germany’s political resilience and the limits of its post-war democratic consensus.