Trump says renewed Iran strikes 'highly unlikely' if talks progress

President Donald Trump said on Sunday that a renewed American military campaign against Iran is highly unlikely, signaling a shift toward diplomacy as negotiations continue over Tehran's nuclear program and the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Speaking during a twenty-minute telephone interview with CNN, Trump conditioned any lasting de-escalation on whether Iran signs what he termed a very strong agreement. The remarks come more than eight months into a conflict that has stoked inflation and sent oil prices surging. It was widely speculated that Trump might restart open conflict after the midterm elections, where his Republican Party lost badly to Democrats.

Yet the administration has stopped short of standing down its forces. Even as the White House dangles the prospect of peace, three aircraft carriers fully locked and loaded remain stationed in the region following the recent arrival of an additional vessel. Trump also revealed that the military has identified 38 bridges in its site that can be knocked down in literally one hour. Explaining his reluctance to trigger such devastation, Trump told CNN, I don't want to do that because essentially, it'll take 10 years to rebuild them. I don't like ripping down bridges. And the hardest thing to build is a bridge. It takes years, and I'm a good builder.

What changed since the midterm elections?

Trump is likely to come under increased pressure to end the conflict, however, now that Democrats have won control of both the House and the Senate. Some Republicans are also likely to be eager for an end to the war, given the role high gas prices played in their drubbing at the ballot box.

Meanwhile, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei affirmed that political developments in Washington including a recent Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections would have zero bearing on Tehran's stance towards Washington, Al Jazeera reported. Taking to social media platform X, senior adviser Mohamed Mokhber cautioned against placing expectations on shifts in the American legislative landscape, calling on the Iranian administration to rely solely on domestic economic resilience. Mokhber wrote that it was naive to tie our fate to Washington, according to Al Jazeera. It is necessary to mobilise our economic resources. Time is a national asset; it must not be wasted, he added.

Earlier in the day, Iran's Armed Forces warned the United States against pursuing its hegemonic and hostile policies towards the Islamic Republic, asserting that any power standing against Iran would ultimately face collapse and disintegration. According to Iranian state media, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), Brigadier General Shekarchi, spokesperson for Iran's Armed Forces, said, The political and electoral developments in the United States and the successive defeats of the Trump administration and his party colleagues in various fields are, rather than being the result of superficial fluctuations in the country's domestic politics, a reflection of a larger and undeniable reality: defeat against the will of a powerful Iran.

Why are three carriers anchored off the coast?

Trump asserted that devastating economic sanctions coupled with previous military strikes had severely degraded Tehran's capabilities. During his CNN interview, Trump cited staggering economic figures, noting that Tehran is withering away financially and pointing to an inflation rate that reached 301% this year. He asserted that the regime retains only about 10% of its missile capacity and 15% of its drone capability after factories were knocked out, though those particular assessments have not been independently verified.

At the same time, the United States is maintaining pressure. Central Command announced Task Force Iron Gate on Saturday, describing it as an initiative aimed at preventing the movement of advanced weapons systems, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials, and illegal revenue streams across Iran's land borders and the Caspian Sea. Trump took to Truth Social to praise the operation, writing, Task Force Iron Gate is in full force and effect in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Coupled with history's greatest Naval Blockade, very little gets into, or out of, Iran! he said. The U.S. has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports for months.

Trump and his foolish, extremist, and terrorist associates had entered the field proudly and civilised to destroy Iran, but in a reverse turn, they themselves became victims of strategic erosion, deep internal crises, and defeats imposed by the proud armed forces of Iran and the axis of resistance.

Brigadier General Shekarchi, spokesperson for Iran's Armed Forces

This dual track leaves markets and observers waiting to see whether diplomatic contacts can bridge the gap as Washington demands Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz and agree to never develop a nuclear weapon as part of any deal.

Can diplomatic backchannels break the Hormuz stalemate?

Diplomatic contacts have accelerated in the region since Thursday. Qatar said on Friday that Trump had called Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to discuss de-escalation. That came a day after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with counterparts across the Gulf and the wider region.

Yet physical supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain. Hormuz remains contested and tankers are still being attacked, so any relief is likely to be limited until talks produce something concrete. An easing in crude prices would also take a little pressure off the inflation argument behind Fed hike expectations, but that depends on the talks actually moving.

The next test is whether that flurry of calls turns into visible movement at the negotiating table, or whether the stalemate in Hormuz drags on.